Bills Rooting Interests Week #9
Who Bills Mafia should root for in every game, every week
Welcome to the ninth iteration of 2025’s “Buffalo Bills Rooting Interests”! These posts are intended to provide Bills Mafia with rationale behind who they should root for in every game in every week of the NFL regular season. Included is the Game Importance Scale which rates each game from 👏 (Least Important) to 👏👏👏👏👏 (Most Important). Future editions of this series will be posted each week on Wednesday by 9:00AM ET.
Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:
H2H: Head-to-Head
WLC: Win/Loss in Conference
WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)
SOV: Strength of Victory
SOS: Strength of Schedule
Week #8 Review
The most important part of week eight was that the Buffalo Bills win their game. They did that, but that’s about the extent of positives this week. The -17 👏 is the worst week since week nine in 2022 (-18). The Chargers won. The Dolphins won. The Patriots won. The Ravens won. The Texans won. The Broncos won. The Colts won. The Chiefs won. In fact, the only true positive outcomes from a Buffalo Bills rooting interests were the Bengals and Steelers losing. Regardless, all the Bills can keep doing is winning and if they do that at some point the tide will turn in their direction…hopefully beginning this week.
Rooting Interests Record: 49-42 (LW 3-9)
Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: +7 (LW -17 👏)
Ravens (2-5) @ Dolphins (2-6) - Thu 8:15PM 👏👏
The first game of the week is an odd one to discuss from a rooting interest’s perspective. Typically speaking we root against division foes until they are all but eliminated from competing for the AFC East title, but this week we are going a different direction. The Dolphins enter this week at 2-6 with an H2H loss to the Bills and a WLC of 1-5. If Miami is somehow able to pass the Buffalo Bills in the standings, then it is highly unlikely the Bills will make the playoffs. That means you can safely root for the Dolphins to win their contest on Thursday night against Vegas’ favorite to win the AFC North.
Optimal Outcome: Dolphins victory
Bears (4-3) @ Bengals (3-5) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏
The Bengals suffered a devastating loss to the New York Jets in week eight and are now on life support heading into week nine. They need to find a way to make it until approximately week sixteen, to get Joe Burrow back, without dropping more than two games. With contests against the Steelers, Patriots, Ravens x2, and Bills on the horizon that seems like a tall task. Lose to the Bears this week and that tall task becomes nearly impossible making Burrow’s potential return near worthless. Make it worthless and make the wildcard picture less crowded after the midway point of the season.
Optimal Outcome: Bears victory
Vikings (3-4) @ Lions (5-2) - Sun 1:00PM 👏
There are four NFC only matchups this week that feature teams the Bills do not play in the regular season. That is a rough go for rooting interests and something we simply need to get through this week. The first of those games features the Vikings and Lions meaning we need to target to the SOV impact of each of these teams winning this week in the context of other AFC teams. The Vikings have lost to the Steelers and Chargers while the Lions have lost to the Chiefs. SOV is more likely to be applied to the Chargers than any of the three AFC teams listed meaning we root for the team that lost to them to lose this game.
Optimal Outcome: Lions victory
Panthers (4-4) @ Packers (5-1-1) - Sun 1:00PM 👏
SOV is a rarely used tiebreaker but it is the 4th most important one meaning it is one we can consider. Heading into week nine the Bills have the 29th ranked SOV meaning any help they can get in that tiebreaker will be beneficial heading into the homestretch of the season. In a matchup featuring the Panthers, who the Bills just beat, and the Packers, who the Bills won’t play in the regular season, there is but one outcome that benefits the Bills SOV, and that is optimal.
Optimal Outcome: Panthers victory
Chargers (5-3) @ Titans (1-7) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏
The first three games of the Chargers season had them looking like potential Super Bowl favorites. Since then, they have dropped 3 of 5 including losses to the Giants, Commanders, and Colts. It’s not clear what they quite are but we know they are better than bad. A team we know is bad is the Titans who look like one of the league’s worst franchises and are a few days away from a complete fire sale. That makes this optimal outcome clear, root for the team who already knows their season is over to down the team who thinks their season till has potential.
Optimal Outcome: Titans victory
Falcons (3-4) @ Patriots (6-2) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏
The Patriots keep finding ways to win games and sit at a surprising 6-2 just eight weeks into the season. With nine weeks left in the season the Patriots have just two games remaining against teams with more than three wins (Buccaneers & Bills). That means Bills Mafia needs to start rooting for some upsets and what better time to do that than now. Root for the Falcons to upset the Patriots in Foxborough on Sunday by leaning into Bijan Robinson and trusting that rushing attack to down a Patriots defense which can be got if you do things the right way.
Optimal Outcome: Falcons victory
49ers (5-3) @ Giants (2-6) - Sun 1:00PM 👏
Another NFC only matchup featuring teams the Bills don’t play in the regular season means we eye the SOV of contending AFC teams. In that context the 49ers have lost to the Jaguars and Texans while the Giants have lost to the Chiefs and Broncos. The Jaguars and Broncos are the most likely SOV opponents of the Bills with the Broncos holding a significantly higher record than the Jaguars. Because of that we root against the team that lost to the Broncos in an effort to drop their SOV and raise the Bills tiebreaking potential.
Optimal Outcome: 49ers Victory
Colts (7-1) @ Steelers (4-3) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏
Some people had the Indianapolis Colts winning the AFC South (I did) but very few had them being the AFC’s #1 seed. Right now, and regardless of outcomes this week, the Indianapolis Colts are the AFC’s #1 seed. That means if the Buffalo Bills have any hope of taking the #1 seed in the AFC they need the Colts to start losing ASAP. To that point, this week a loss would be optimal, with the simultaneous benefit of generating a more difficult path for the always dangerous Ravens making the playoffs.
Optimal Outcome: Steelers victory
Broncos (6-2) @ Texans (3-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏
Broncos at Texans is a feature game this week and will go a long way in determining how each of these team’s seasons end. A Broncos win here will set them up on a path to steal the AFC West while a Texans win will go a long way in assuring they make the playoffs. For the Bills optimal right now is seeding, meaning that dropping a possible division winner down a peg is more important then removing a sub .500 team from the playoff picture.
Optimal Outcome: Texans victory
Jaguars (4-3) @ Raiders (2-5) - Sun 4:05PM 👏👏
The Jacksonville Jaguars leave their bye week with the AFC South slowly slipping from their grasp. They currently site 2 games behind the Indianapolis Colts who they luckily play two times in the homestretch of this season. In order to make those games matter the Jaguars are going to need win all the games left on their schedule that they should win, including this contest against the Raiders. If they drop this game though, it further opens a backdoor to the playoffs that the Bills may need if they stumble and can’t catch the New England Patriots.
Optimal Outcome: Raiders victory
Saints (1-7) @ Rams (5-2) - Sun 4:05PM 👏
The Saints have made the move from Spencer Rattler to Tyler Shough in an effort to save their season (or quietly tank it). Oddly enough Rattler is likely the better of the two but despite that Shough will lead the Saints into Los Angeles to take on a solid Rams team. From a Bills perspective that isn’t great as a victory by the Saints increases their SOS and SOV while a loss by them does exactly the opposite.
Optimal Outcome: Saints victory
Chiefs (5-3) @ Bills (5-2) - Sun 4:25PM 👏👏👏👏👏
The Bills beat the Chiefs in the regular season and lose to the Chiefs in the playoffs. The Chiefs beat the Bills in the playoffs and lose to the Bills in the regular season. There’s an argument to be made that maybe there is some juju to be gained by flipping the script this season. But rooting interests can’t go there, get the win and start stacking.
Optimal Outcome: Bills victory
Seahawks (5-2) @ Commanders (3-5) - Sun 8:20PM 👏
The final two games of week nine feature four NFC teams the Bills do not play in the regular season. The first of those two pits the Seahawks versus the Commanders in a game consisting of two teams going two different directions. Those paths don’t matter to Bills fans though as we eye the SOV tiebreaker and the impact of this game on other AFC contenders. In that context the Seahawks have yet to lose to an AFC team while the Commander have lost to the Chiefs. Cut and dry here.
Optimal Outcome: Seahawks victory
Cardinals (2-5) @ Cowboys (3-4-1) - Mon 8:15PM 👏
The final game of the week is the final opportunity we have to discuss SOV. Thus far the Cardinals have lost to the Titans and the Colts while the Cowboys have lost to the Broncos. The Cardinals loss to the Titans is inconsequential but as of today their loss to the Colts is more important than the Cowboys loss to the Broncos. Root accordingly.
Optimal Outcome: Cowboys victory
Bye Week
Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Optimal Standings
If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.
Colts (7-2)**
Bills (6-2)**
Broncos (6-3)**
Steelers (5-3)**
Patriots (6-3)*
Chargers (5-4, H2H win over KC)*
Chiefs (5-4, H2H loss to LAC)*
Jaguars (4-4, H2H win over HOU)
Texans (4-4, H2H loss to JAX)
Raiders (3-5)
Bengals (3-6, 3-2 WLC)
Dolphins (3-6, 2-5 WLC)
Ravens (2-6, H2H win over CLE)
Browns (2-6, H2H loss to BAL)
Titans (2-7)
Jets (1-7)
** Division Leader * Wildcard