Welcome to the second iteration of 2025’s “Buffalo Bills Rooting Interests”! These posts are intended to provide Bills Mafia with rationale behind who they should root for in every game in every week of the NFL regular season. Included is the Game Importance Scale which rates each game from 👏 (Least Important) to 👏👏👏👏👏 (Most Important). Future editions of this series will be posted each week on Wednesday by 9:00AM ET.
Ties are not considered. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:
H2H: Head-to-Head
WLC: Win/Loss in Conference
WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)
SOV: Strength of Victory
SOS: Strength of Schedule
EARLY SEASON DISCLAIMER: This is the 7th season I am doing this. In that time, I have made some adjustment to the format and methodology, but one thing has remained constant, I try to avoid assumptions at all costs. Early in the season that may result in some odd Optimal Outcomes, which may include rooting for some teams we all assume will be good beating teams we all assume will be bad. Fair warning and to those who think I should change I’ll quote Del Griffith, “Well, you think what you want about me; I’m not changing.”
Week #1 Review
Before the Bills even stepped on the field they were in first place in the AFC East. That’s right, in week one every AFC East team dropped their contest…until the Bills played. And then we all beared witness to one of the greatest comebacks in recent NFL history. Thus Buffalo has the ability to go wire to wire to snag their sixth consecutive AFC East title. Oh, the Chiefs, Texans, and Ravens (who lost to a “participation” MVP) also dropped their games. Not a bad week one, not bad at all.
Rooting Interests Record: 5-3
Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: +11
Commanders (1-0) @ Packers (1-0) - Thu 8:15PM
Both the Commanders and Packers came out of week one with convincing wins. The Commanders beat up on a BAD Giants team while the Packers took it to one of the league’s Super Bowl favorites in the Lions. This game will have a lot of impact on where each of these teams finish this season but what it won’t effect much is the Buffalo Bills playoff aspirations.
Optimal Outcome: N/A
Jaguars (1-0) @ Bengals (1-0) - Sun 1:00PM 👏
Both the Jaguars and the Bengals needed a fast start to right the wrongs of the 2024 versions of themselves. With wins in week one they both got that, well kind of. The Jaguars handled a subpar Panthers team while the Bengals barely beat one of the worst teams in the NFL in the Cleveland Browns. An odd game to add a rooting interest to at this point in the season but with Cincinnati on the Bills 2025 schedule and the Jaguars nowhere to be found we root for an SOS bump as well as control of our own destiny.
Optimal Outcome: Bengals victory
Giants (0-1) @ Cowboys (0-1) - Sun 1:00PM
The Russell Wilson led Giants showed little to no fight against the Commanders last week while the Dak Prescott led Cowboys gave the defending Super Bowl champ Eagles a run for their money. The outcome of this game is basically already determined but at this point in the season we can’t determine an optimal rooting interest for it.
Optimal Outcome: N/A
Bears (0-1) @ Lions (0-1) - Sun 1:00PM
Two NFC North teams got wins in week one, and two did not. The Bears and Lions represent those two teams with one of them set to get their first win of the season in this matchup. Each of these teams are an enigma right now, and oddly enough so is the Bills rooting interest for this matchup.
Optimal Outcome: N/A
Rams (1-0) @ Titans (0-1) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏
The Titans very well may have something in rookie Cam Ward, despite his 12/28 112 yard debut. In that debut the more concerning thing for AFC teams is that Tennessee’s defense looks live, and like they will cause contenders trouble at some point this season. It’s unlikely that will translate into a playoff appearance but in a matchup like this where the other side is an NFC team, we root for the AFC team to take another step towards elimination.
Optimal Outcome: Rams victory
Patriots (0-1) @ Dolphins (0-1) - Sun 1:00PM
A lot of hope and optimism degraded for the Patriots following their week one loss to the Raiders, a loss where Drake Maye struggled and their defense wasn’t all that great. Even worse, a Dolphins team that got plastered by Daniel Jones’ Colts for Indianapolis’ first week one win since September 8, 2013. This is a pick’em game with the only real hope being a tie BUT these posts don’t consider ties, so just root for a bad football game.
Optimal Outcome: N/A
49ers (1-0) @ Saints (0-1) - Sun 1:00PM 👏
The Saints were a little feisty in week one versus the Cardinals, but make no mistake that is a bad football team and 0-17 is very much on the table. The 49ers are nowhere near as bad but if the injury bug that is plaguing them keeps up, their roster may reach a similar level of futility. For the Bills this game does not matter much, but with the Saints coming to town in week four a stunning win by them this week bumps the Bills SOS.
Optimal Outcome: Saints victory
Bills (1-0) @ Jets (0-1) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏👏
It took everything from the Bills to down the Ravens in week one and now they get Ravens-lite in week two. A victory here would give the Bills at least a 1.5 game lead on every other team in the AFC East, let’s hope that happens with a tad less effort needed this week.
Optimal Outcome: Bills victory
Seahawks (0-1) @ Steelers (1-0) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏
The Aaron Rodgers renaissance is off to quite the start in Pittsburgh. The 41-year-old matched his Jets best with 4 touchdowns to beat…the Jets. That team has some issues though mainly the inability to run the ball and a defense that may actually be bad? This week that defense will try and rebound against the Seahawks who coincidentally have another ex-Jets quarterback in Sam Darnold. This is NFC vs AFC, you know the deal.
Optimal Outcome: Seahawks victory
Browns (0-1) @ Ravens (0-1) - Sun 1:00PM 👏
Please read the Early Season Disclaimer at the top of this post if you haven’t already, otherwise prepare to be outraged. The bottom feeders of the AFC North meet in Baltimore this week to determine who stays at the bottom and who moves up the board. The Browns struggled but were competitive against the Bengals while the Ravens (offense) played very well against the Bills but came up 1 point short of victory. The latter is important, a win by Baltimore increases Buffalo’s SOV while a Cleveland win does nothing (at this point in the season).
Optimal Outcome: Ravens victory
Broncos (1-0) @ Colts (1-0) - Sun 4:05PM
Who thought that Bo Nix would struggle in his season opener while Daniel Jones would be one of the league’s best quarterbacks? Still, both teams came away with wins, just another example that QB Winz are not a QB stat. This week one of them will get a QB Lozz in a game that we need more context for in order to identify an optimal outcome.
Optimal Outcome: N/A
Panthers (0-1) @ Cardinals (1-0) - Sun 4:05PM
There is something ugly about these two teams. No I’m not talking about the Cardinals ugly rivalry uniforms, I’m talking about bad football. Something has seemed off for the Cardinals for years while the over hyped end of 2024 for Bryce Young came to a screeching halt in the opening wee of 2025. Luckily for you, you don’t need to watch this game as the outcome of it has little to no impact on the Buffalo Bills.
Optimal Outcome: N/A
Eagles (1-0) @ Chiefs (0-1) - Sunday 4:25PM 👏👏
The Chiefs are the Chiefs so until they are dead treat them like Omar Little. They struggled in week one and didn’t look good on offense or defense and now they need to host one of the league’s most talented teams in the Eagles. A loss here would start to raise alarm bells in Kansas City, especially with a trip to Baltimore scheduled in two weeks. Here are Bills Mafia, we like alarm bells, especially when they are at the expense of the hated Chiefs.
Optimal Outcome: Eagles victory
Falcons (0-1) @ Vikings (1-0) - Sunday 8:20PM 👏
The Falcons lost last week because of a missed 44-yard Field Goal (Norwood missed a 47 yarder). The Vikings won last week because the Bears are dooty and J.J. McCarthy somehow never loses football games. Still this should be a good game because Atlanta has enough to be feisty while the Vikings have some legitimate concerns. For Bills fans, concern yourself with this, Buffalo plays Atlanta in week six but won’t see Minnesota this regular season. SOS anyone?
Optimal Outcome: Falcons victory
Buccaneers (1-0) @ Texans (0-1) - Mon 7:00PM 👏👏
Baker Mayfield’s resurgence in Tampa Bay is one of the more underappreciated stories in the NFL. He continues to win them football games by playing pissed off late in games and turning that into points. On the other side, we need to talk about the drop off in C.J. Stroud more. Following his rookie season he was viewed as a borderline Top-5 quarterback and even finished 8th in MVP voting. Since then he has been meh, which is good news for the AFC and another meh performance this week will be even better news.
Optimal Outcome: Buccaneers victory
Chargers (1-0) @ Raiders (1-0) - Mon 10:00PM
How the NFL can get away with a game being shown at 10:00PM ET is beyond me…but I’ll watch it, and so should you! The Chargers have a chance to build a commanding lead in the AFC West and for the first time in a long time present a real challenge to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders are right there too though, and a win this week by them will start to raise a lot of questions about that division. Pick your poison here, because I don’t have enough information to tell you who to root for.
Optimal Outcome: N/A
Optimal Standings
If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings (Tiebreaker details to be added after Week #5).
Bills (2-0)**
Bengals (2-0)**
Colts (2-0)**
Raiders (2-0)**
Chargers (1-1)*
Broncos (1-1)*
Steelers (1-1)*
Jaguars (1-1)
Dolphins (1-1)
Ravens (1-1)
Chiefs (0-2)
Jets (0-2)
Patriots (0-2)
Browns (0-2)
Texans (0-2)
Titans (0-2)
** Division Leader * Wildcard
you’re a real one @uberhansen
Chiefs should be 0-2, no?