Bills Rooting Interests Week #11
Who Bills Mafia should root for in every game, every week
Welcome to the eleventh iteration of 2025’s “Buffalo Bills Rooting Interests”! These posts are intended to provide Bills Mafia with rationale behind who they should root for in every game in every week of the NFL regular season. Included is the Game Importance Scale which rates each game from 👏 (Least Important) to 👏👏👏👏👏 (Most Important). Future editions of this series will be posted each week on Wednesday by 9:00AM ET.
Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:
H2H: Head-to-Head
WLC: Win/Loss in Conference
WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)
SOV: Strength of Victory
SOS: Strength of Schedule
Week #10 Review
What can you say for the Bills showing in week ten against the Dolphins other than ew. There are lots of things this Buffalo team needs to fix, and they need to start fixing it now. That means beating the Buccaneers this week and continuing to stack more wins in weeks after. Making matters worse for Buffalo though is they aren’t getting much help around the NFL as AFC contenders keep winning. In week ten that included the Patriots, Broncos, Ravens, Texans, and Chargers. This is all making the Bills grasp on the playoffs tenuous at best meaning there will be plenty of contests to monitor outside of Buffalo’s in week eleven.
Rooting Interests Record: 62-55 (LW 8-5)
Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -5 (LW -4 👏)
Jets (2-7) @ Patriots (8-2) - Thu 8:15PM 👏👏👏👏
With the Bills surprise loss to the Dolphins and the Patriots refusal to drop another game, the Bills consecutive division title streak is in jeopardy. The loss to the Dolphins is especially damning because it provides the Patriots with two tiebreakers (H2H & DIV) over the Bills. That means in order for the Bills to hop the Patriots in division they are either going to need an outright better record or to see the Pats drop a game to the Jets or Dolphins. Incidentally, the Patriots host the Jets on Thursday night, providing for an opportunity to make the division race much closer.
Optimal Outcome: Jets victory
Commanders (3-7) @ Dolphins (3-7) - Sun 9:30AM 👏👏
Despite their victory over the Bills, it remains highly unlikely that the Miami Dolphins will be able to hop the Bills in the standings. It would likely require them to win out and the Bills finishing 3-5 (or worse) in their final 8 games. If that happens the playoffs are off the table for the Bills but when we look at rooting interests, we look for optimal outcomes. This week that remains Miami losing with a loss all but ending any chance they have of entering the playoff conversation.
Optimal Outcome: Commanders victory
Panthers (5-5) @ Falcons (3-6) - Sun 1:00PM 👏
Both the Panthers and Falcons remain enigmas as far as this season is concerned. The Panthers recently beat the Green Bay Packers and then lost to the New Orleans Saints. The Falcons beat the Buffalo Bills but got blown out by the Miami Dolphins. What either of these teams are is an answer not many have, but an answer we do have is what makes for an optimal outcome here, and it has to do with bumping SOV.
Optimal Outcome: Panthers victory
Buccaneers (6-3) @ Bills (6-3) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏👏
The Buffalo Bills need to start stacking wins. This is required not only to remain in the division race, but at this point to make the playoffs as well. Start that this week when hosting the 6-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game each of these teams will be pulling out all the stops to win.
Optimal Outcome: Bills victory
Texans (4-5) @ Titans (1-8) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏
The Houston Texans kept their season alive in week ten via an improbable win over the Jacksonville Jaguars led by backup QB, Davis Mills. This makes them a danger for the rest of the AFC as starter CJ Stroud is do bac k in short order, and with a competent offense and one of the league’s best defenses Houston can be a problem. Root for them to drop this one to the lowly Titans thus providing the Buffalo Bills with more wiggle room in the wildcard picture.
Optimal Outcome: Titans victory
Bears (6-3) @ Vikings (4-5) - Sun 1:00PM 👏
This week there are four games featuring two NFC teams that the Bills do not face in the regular season. In those games we root to lower the SOV of key AFC competition by targeting optimal outcomes. In that context the Bears loss to the Ravens and the Vikings losses to the Steelers, Chargers, and Ravens loom large. This is obvious, the net difference in losses is +2 towards the Vikings meaning we root for them to drop this one and negatively impact the Steelers and Chargers.
Optimal Outcome: Bears victory
Packers (5-3-1) @ Giants (2-8) - Sun 1:00PM 👏
Another game where the primary focus is the SOV of AFC opponents. That means the Packers loss to the Browns (weird) and the Giants losses to the Chiefs and Broncos are of concern. The Browns don’t appear to be a factor in the AFC playoff picture this season while the Bills H2H victory over the Chiefs makes an SOV tiebreaker there very unlikely. But the SOV of the Broncos is something that very much could come into play, especially with no clear path for the Bills to gain any other major tiebreakers over them.
Optimal Outcome: Packers victory
Bengals (3-6) @ Steelers (5-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏
Bengals @ Steelers, much like Chargers @ Jaguars, is a difficult game to optimize. On the one hand, a Bengals loss essentially eliminates another team from wildcard contention at the expense of making seeding a more difficult to gain via a Steelers victory. On the other hand, a Bengals victory brings another AFC team to .500 opening up new paths to the playoffs at the expense of keeping Cincinnati in playoff contention. That’s the direction we are going to go here as a 4-6 Bengals and 5-5 Steelers is more palatable than a 3-7 Bengals and 6-4 Steelers.
Optimal Outcome: Bengals victory
Chargers (7-3) @ Jaguars (5-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏
The same analysis we did in Bengals @ Steelers applies to Chargers @ Jaguars. Each of these teams are in direct competition for playoff spots the Bills are trying to get their hands on. Avoiding another team getting to 8 wins this early in the season is a requirement as far as rooting interests are concerned. That means we root to middle records here by applying another loss to the Chargers at the expense of the Jaguars moving to a .600 record.
Optimal Outcome: Jaguars victory
Seahawks (7-2) @ Rams (7-2) - Sun 4:05PM 👏
The third of four NFC only look at SOV contests also appears to be the game of the week. The winner of this contest controls the NFC West while the loser falls clearly into the wildcard bucket. For Bills fans note that neither the Seahawks nor the Rams have lost to an AFC team meaning our focus shifts from SOV to potential SOV. In that context the Rams have already played and beaten every AFC team on their schedule while the Seahawks still have a big contest against the Indianapolis Colts on December 14. That is an opportunity for Indy to gain a nice bump in SOV meaning that losses by the Seahawks now potentially reduce the SOV the Colts could gain from a win later in the season.
Optimal Outcome: Rams victory
49ers (6-4) @ Cardinals (3-6) - Sun 4:05PM 👏
The fourth and final SOV only content features the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals. Applicable games to consider in this analysis are the 49ers losses to the Jaguars and Texans as well as the Cardinals loss to the Colts. As surprising as it may be this is a 2 versus 1 conversation meaning we root for the Jacoby Brissett led birds to take down the Mac Jones led miners.
Optimal Outcome: Cardinals victory
Ravens (4-5) @ Browns (2-7) - Sun 4:25PM 👏👏👏
The Baltimore Ravens are looking more and more like they are going to be the team that takes the AFC North. They may be just 4-5 at this point in the season but they appear to be ascending while the Steelers and the rest of the AFC North appear to be on the downswing. A win by Baltimore this week makes that trend even more apparent thus making Buffalo’s path out of the AFC all the more difficult. BUT, if the Ravens were to drop this game to the Cleveland Browns and fall to 4-6, not only does the AFC North become a significantly less likely path into the playoffs for Baltimore but also makes the wildcard even more unlikely.
Optimal Outcome: Browns victory
Chiefs (5-4) @ Broncos (8-2) - Sun 4:25PM 👏👏👏
The Broncos season is playing out in a very similar way to the Patriots which has resulted in parallel story lines for the Bills and Chiefs. This game is a massive one on the week eleven docket as a loss by Kansas City this week all but locks them out of competing for the AFC West. Even more damning, a loss by the Chiefs would see them fall to 5-5 and keep them outside the playoff picture 10 games into the 2025 season. But these posts look for optimal outcomes and none of that is optimal at this point. Instead, a victory by the Chiefs knocks another contender down a peg improving seeding possibilities while simultaneously guaranteeing the Chiefs won’t pass the Bills in playoff standings this week.
Optimal Outcome: Chiefs victory
Lions (6-3) @ Eagles (7-2) - Sun 8:20PM 👏
SOV is a tiebreaker that very well may come into play for the Bills this season. Heading into this week, among the 7 current AFC playoff teams, the Buffalo Bills SOV ranks #6, ahead of only rh Denver Broncos. That means that any opportunity to improve the Bills SOV, or even the potential to improve it should be considered and targeted. In Lions @ Eagles that means rooting against a Lake Erie Bro for the possibility that a week seventeen victory over the Eagles could provide a much-needed tiebreaker bump.
Optimal Outcome: Eagles victory
Cowboys (3-5-1) @ Raiders (2-7) - Mon 8:15PM 👏
The final game of week eleven also appears to be one of the more boring games on the schedule. The 3-5-1 Cowboys versus the 2-7 Las Vegas Raiders? You shouldn’t watch this. But if you do root against Las Vegas for no other reason than an AFC loss is nice with the added benefit of SOV reductions to a handful of other AFC contenders.
Optimal Outcome: Cowboys victory
Bye Week
Indianapolis Colts. New Orleans Saints
Optimal Standings
If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.
Colts (8-2)**
Patriots (8-3, 5-2 WLC)**
Broncos (8-3, 5-3 WLC)**
Steelers (5-5)**
Bills (7-3)*
Chargers (7-4)*
Jaguars (6-4, H2H win over KC)*
Chiefs (6-4, H2H loss to JAX)
Bengals (4-6, 3-0 DIV, 4-2 WLC)
Texans (4-6, 3-3 WLC, H2H win over BAL)
Ravens (4-6, 1-1 DIV, H2H loss to HOU)
Jets (3-7, H2H win over CLE)
Browns (3-7, H2H loss to NYJ)
Dolphins (3-8)
Raiders (2-8, H2H win over TEN)
Titans (2-8, H2H loss to LVR)
** Division Leader * Wildcard
I understand the logic, but always rooting for a Chiefs + Bengals loss to take them out of the postseason. They are far more dangerous then, than Steelers or Broncos, who are more manageable.