Bills Rooting Interests Week #10
Who Bills Mafia should root for in every game, every week
Welcome to the tenth iteration of 2025’s “Buffalo Bills Rooting Interests”! These posts are intended to provide Bills Mafia with rationale behind who they should root for in every game in every week of the NFL regular season. Included is the Game Importance Scale which rates each game from 👏 (Least Important) to 👏👏👏👏👏 (Most Important). Future editions of this series will be posted each week on Wednesday by 9:00AM ET.
Ties and injuries are not considered in this discussion. Tiebreakers that are considered for overall standings are as follows:
H2H: Head-to-Head
WLC: Win/Loss in Conference
WLG: Win/Loss in Common Games (min 4)
SOV: Strength of Victory
SOS: Strength of Schedule
Week #9 Review
As with most weeks, the most important outcome for the Bills was the outcome of their own game. It may have gotten a bit tight at the end, but the Bills downed the Chiefs in what was their first complete game of this NFL season. That kept the Bills inline to compete for another AFC East title and dropped the Chiefs into third in their own division and currently outside the AFC playoff picture. That unfortunately was the only true positive outcome of this week for the Bills with the Bengals and Colts losing representing nice outcomes, but not major ones. Meanwhile the Patriots, Ravens, Chargers, Broncos, Jaguars, and Steelers all won their game keeping a crowded AFC playoff picture still heavily populated. Let’s hope Buffalo maintains their winning ways this week while this rash of AFC contenders continuing to win takes a sabbatical over the next couple of NFL sessions.
Rooting Interests Record: 54-50 (LW 5-8)
Rooting Interests 👏 +/-: -1 (LW -8 👏)
Raiders (2-6) @ Broncos (7-2) - Thu 8:15PM 👏👏👏
Seven of the Broncos nine games have been one-score games. In those games Denver is 5-2 with victories over Cam Ward, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Jaxon Dart, and Davis Mills. Are the Broncos good, or fine? This week probably won’t answer that question as they are set to take on a Raiders team that we know isn’t any good. For the Bills though, it’s important that the Broncos start dropping games so that the path to the #1 seed becomes more direct.
Optimal Outcome: Raiders victory
Falcons (3-5) @ Colts (7-2) - Sun 9:30AM 👏👏👏
The Colts think they are in a legitimate Super Bowl window with Daniel Jones at quarterback and as a result are going all in. This led them to make a blockbuster move at the trade deadline as they acquired All-Pro corner, Sauce Gardner. Like the Broncos there are plenty of questions surrounding this team and just how good they are. That doesn’t particularly matter in week ten though as the Colts are currently in the Bills way of acquiring the #1 seed meaning a Sunday morning loss by the Colts in Berlin is a boon for the Buffalo Bills.
Optimal Outcome: Falcons victory
Giants (2-7) @ Bears (5-3) - Sun 1:00PM 👏
The Giants have the future in Jaxon Dart who possesses much of the same swagger that Josh Allen had as a rookie. That should be exciting for Big Blue fans and make for a solid contest on Sunday afternoon against the Bears. When searching for a rooting interest in this game we do the ‘ol SOV of opposing AFC teams since this is an NFC only non-Bills opponent contest. In that context the Giants have lost to the Chiefs and Broncos while the Bears have lost to the Ravens. With Buffalo holding H2H wins over the Chiefs and Ravens the most likely use of SOV would occur against the Broncos which solidifies the optimal outcome for this contest.
Optimal Outcome: Bears victory
Bills (6-2) @ Dolphins (2-7) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏👏
The Bills played exceptional football against the Chiefs in all three phases on their way to a week nine win. Avoid a letdown game this week and trounce a rudderless Dolphins team to improve to 7-2.
Optimal Outcome: Bills victory
Ravens (3-5) @ Vikings (4-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏
The Ravens are coming for the AFC North title, and if they can find their way into the playoffs, they will be a problem for the rest of the AFC. To accomplish that they must finish the season 7-2 (or better), which seems feasible with their remaining schedule. A loss to a team like the Vikings makes that much more difficult though, and from a rooting interest’s perspective avoiding allowing a team of the Ravens caliber into the playoffs is every bit of optimal.
Optimal Outcome: Vikings victory
Browns (2-6) @ Jets (1-7) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏
The Jets began the complete rebuild of their roster by shipping away Sauce Gardner AND Quinnen Williams in exchange for three 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick. Add this to the high pick they are expected to get by year’s end and the New York Jets appear as though they will control the next couple of NFL Drafts. At this point, that’s how the Jets win and what is best for the Bills is the Jets losing. So, in a roundabout way, the Jets winning and Browns losing this week is Buffalo’s best strategy resulting in the Jets losing.
Optimal Outcome: Jets victory
Patriots (7-2) @ Buccaneers (6-2) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏👏👏
The Patriots keep finding ways to win, and with a historically easy schedule that makes them more of a problem than they should be. This week they take on the first of two remaining teams with a >.500 record, the Bills being the other. This is about as close to a must lose as you will find this early in the season as there don’t appear to be many more losses on the Patriots schedule. So, if you want the Bills to win their sixth consecutive AFC East title and in turn have a shot at the #1 seed, root for Baker and Co to ball out this weekend.
Optimal Outcome: Buccaneers victory
Saints (1-8) @ Panthers (5-4) - Sun 1:00PM 👏
An odd game as far as rooting interest go. This is an NFC only contest featuring two teams that the Buffalo Bills have played and beaten. That means the outcome of this game has no impact on Buffalo’s SOV or SOS. This means we look towards the SOV impact this game could have on opposing AFC teams as the determining factor in who to root for. Each of these teams has lost to the Patriots BUT the Panthers have also lost to the Jaguars. That means that as of today a loss by Carolina has the optimal impact on the Bills playoff chances by improving their tiebreaking chances.
Optimal Outcome: Saints victory
Jaguars (5-3) @ Texans (3-5) - Sun 1:00PM 👏👏
The Jaguars held on to beat the Las Vegas Raiders in a game which would have been a devastating loss to their playoff aspirations. This week they take on a Texans team that may be forced to start Davis Mills while C.J. Stroud deals with concussion symptoms. That could be a break for the Jaguars who have looked high and low all season and need to snag a division win this week. A loss on the other hand increases the odds of the Bills making the playoffs via a wildcard, if necessary, which is optimal in the current state of the AFC.
Optimal Outcome: Texans victory
Cardinals (3-5) @ Seahawks (6-2) - Sun 4:05PM 👏
The four o’clock window in week ten consists of three NFC only matchups featuring teams the Bills will not face in the regular season. Of course, that means for each of these games we look at the effect each could have on the SOV of other AFC teams. Considering that, the Cardinals have lost to the Titans and Colts while the Seahawks have yet to drop a game against an AFC opponent. This one’s as clear as a sunny day with and could have surprisingly major ramifications given the Colts current AFC standing.
Optimal Outcome: Seahawks victory
Rams (6-2) @ 49ers (6-3) - Sun 4:25PM 👏
Game two of the four o’clock window provides yet another opportunity to improve the Bills tiebreaking disadvantages into advantages. Looking at SOV, the Rams have not lost to an AFC team while the 49ers have lost to the Jaguars and Texans. SOV is highly unlikely to come into play against Houston, with Buffalo set to play them in week twelve, but the Jaguars, well it could matter there.
Optimal Outcome: Rams victory
Lions (5-3) @ Commanders (3-6) - Sun 4:25PM 👏
This is the final game this week where we look towards tiebreakers of AFC opponents as the determining factor of optimal outcome. Thus far both the Lions and Commanders have losses to the Chiefs, and no other AFC teams. That means the SOV impact of this contest is a wash which shifts us to tiebreaker #5 SOS. Important teams to note in that contest are the Lions games against Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh as well as the Commanders games against Los Angeles (Chargers) and Denver. Of the five cities named, the most compelling to have a drop in SOS is the Broncos, which is where we will attack the rooting interest.
Optimal Outcome: Lions victory
Steelers (5-3) @ Chargers (6-3) - Sun 8:20PM 👏👏
The Steelers may have exposed a paper tiger in the Indianapolis Colts, and in the process have maintained their lead in the AFC North. This week they take on another team that may be better on paper than they are on the field in the Los Angeles Chargers. To be fair, the Chargers have suffered heavily from the injury bug with things only getting worse as of late with stud OL, Joe Alt, out for the season. This one is a bit of a toss up as both the Steelers and Chargers have nearly the same record, but with Buffalo set to play the Steelers later this season, them winning this week give the Bills more control over their own destiny than a Chargers victory does.
Optimal Outcome: Steelers victory
Eagles (6-2) @ Packers (5-2-1) - Mon 8:15PM 👏
This is arguably the best game of the week and very well may determine the #1 seed in the NFC. Eagles @ Packers is a heavyweight contest featuring two teams with oodles of talent that tend to get in their own ways more than they should. Rooting Interests looks at this game through the lens of SOS however, with the Eagles on the Bills regular season schedule and the Packers not a potential opponent until February.
Optimal Outcome: Eagles victory
Bye Week
Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs
Optimal Standings
If all the above games go the optimal route, it would result in the following AFC standings.
Bills (7-2)**
Colts (7-3, H2H win over DEN)**
Broncos (7-3, H2H loss to IND)**
Steelers (6-3)**
Patriots (7-3)*
Chargers (6-4)*
Jaguars (5-4, H2H win over KC)*
Chiefs (5-4, H2H loss to JAX)
Texans (4-5)
Bengals (3-6, 3-2 WLC)
Raiders (3-6, 3-4 WLC)
Ravens (3-6, 2-3 WLC)
Jets (2-7, H2H win over CLE)
Browns (2-7, H2H loss to NYJ)
Dolphins (2-8)
Titans (1-8)
** Division Leader * Wildcard